São Paulo – Under strong military apparatus, after the invasion of the Capitol two weeks ago, Democrat Joe Biden takes office this Wednesday (20th), in Washington, as the new president of the United States. As announced since the campaign, the forecast is that the new US government in Biden will put pressure on the Bolsonaro government in Brazil, mainly in relation to the preservation of the environment.

But this pressure must be “positive”, according to political scientist Aldo Fornazieri, a professor at the São Paulo School of Sociology and Politics (FESPSP). Politically, he predicts a “cold and distant” relationship between Bolsonaro and the new American president.

“Bolsonaro will be under very strong pressure. It will have to change, so that commercial relations are not further damaged. In this sense, there is hope that the Biden government will put positive pressure on the Brazilian government, which has a policy of environmental destruction ”, he said, in an interview with Current Brazil Newspaper.

“Other than that, commercial relations should remain more or less the same, without major changes. The fundamental issue will be in the political field, with a cold and distant relationship. In addition to the environmental field, ”he added. Fornazieri said that despite Bolsonaro “kneeling”, Trump “never paid attention” to him. “It was just a flawed ideological relationship that damaged Brazil’s interests.”

‘Relative decline’

He also believes that Biden should adopt a “collaborative multilateralism” in his relationship with other countries. Biden has already announced, for example, the return of the United States to the Paris Agreement, to contain the effects of global warming. Still, friction with China is likely to continue.

“China is on the rise economically. And the United States is facing a relative decline. Even China has the prospect of becoming the most important technological power in the world. In that sense, tensions and pressures must continue ”.

Internal policy

According to the political scientist, the impeachment of Trump is of interest to sectors of the Republican Party itself, who want to take back the caption. Today, according to him, the party is dominated by “Trumpism”, which is divided into two wings. On the one hand, white supremacists, with a terrorist bias, such as those who invaded Congress. On the other, an “atrocious” religious conservatism.

“The Republican Party maintained a liberal conservative policy. They were from the right, but not from the extreme right, as they are now, under the aegis of Trump. As for him, I believe it will decline. He is very worn out, accused of inciting an insurrection that caused deaths. In this sense, I believe that not only can you be held politically, but also criminally, ”he said.

Parallels with Brazil

Regarding Brazil, Fornazieri criticized the “cowardice” of the National Congress, which should analyze the more than 60 requests for removal against Bolsonaro. In addition to the impeachment, he also advocates the creation of a “Health CPI” to investigate the “misdemeanors and crimes” committed during the pandemic, such as deaths due to lack of oxygen in Manaus, and the Army’s millionaire spending on the production of chloroquine .

Regarding Brazil’s relations with China, which is now resisting exporting inputs for the production of vaccines against the covid-19, Fornazieri says that the Brazilian people are “paying the price” of the Bolsonaro government’s “bellicose aggressions”. He classified the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ernesto Araújo, as “disastrous”, guided by “ideological madness”. He stressed that relations with India are also not going well, despite being closer ideologically.

Watch the interview

Copywriting: Tiago Pereira – Edition: Helder Lima